A bit of history here, written for easy understanding of what's already behind us, but more importantly, what's in front of us, esp for future Lee generations to come. And if you happen to be looking out for investments here and there, this may also be of interest to you. Disregard the "heavy American" accent here..
My fellow Americans, every once in a great while, a giant, yet certain, reality rears its ugly head, stares us in the eyes and asks us to recognize an unquestionable truth that we do not want to hear, recognize or even acknowledge.
As an investor and investment manager, I do not have the luxury of denial. You and I only build our wealth when we invest with reality -- not against it.
What's this new "unspeakable" economic reality?
The next great economic age of world history -- the Post-American Economic Age -- has begun.
I'll be talking about this theme a lot while I'm in Vegas for the Money Show this week, and it's one I'm going to continue to talk about all year -- and probably for the next 10 years.
The simple, unvarnished truth is that this economic ChangeWave is, without a doubt, the most exciting wealth-building opportunity you and I are ever going to have the chance to participate in.
Don't Kill the Messenger
Before the hate mail starts coming in, please let me make sure you understand my message.
The Post-American Economic Age is in no way an indication that Americans are headed to the history scrap pile. As a matter of fact, it's the total reverse of that.
The Post-American Economic Age is not about the fall of America. Rather, it is, as Fareed Zakaria tells us in his new book, "The Post-American World," about the rise of the rest of the world.
This new economic age is not about the fall of capitalism. It's about its success and the way it is manifesting itself around the globe.
We took the greatest economic system known to man and exported it to the rest of the world, which is now hell-bent on catching up to us. It is this amazing global race to make up for so much lost time that's changing the world -- mostly for the better.
A Page From Toby's History Book
Westernism: The first modern economic age was the rise of Western civilization, as Western nations emerged as world powers. It began in the 15th century and cultivated much of the world we now know: science and technology, commerce and capitalism, agricultural and industrial revolutions.
Americanism: The second great economic age was the rise of the United States in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. As the United States converted from an agrarian to an industrial economy, we grew our nation and its population to the greatest economic heights in history. We became a super power of unheard of size, power and strength.
Post-Americanism: The rest of the global economy has imported much of the infrastructure and institutions of Western capitalism and has accelerated their growth.
We are now in the final chapter of the last economic age. The death of communism, the end of the Cold War, and the end of Maoism and China's rebirth have all sowed the seeds for the next great economic age.
Size Does Matter
We must accept the economic reality that the rise of Western civilization and then of the United States was a dress rehearsal for the rise of the rest of the world.
This new story is really one of size and scale. The countries that innovated and led the Western world were relatively small, e.g., the Dutch and their trading system, Britain and its industry. Modern economic miracles like Denmark, Switzerland and Ireland have populations smaller than most U.S. states.
The United States was the first major economic revolution to take place with a large population. The range and the depth of our prosperity have been unique up to this point.
During the American economic age, China, Russia, India and Brazil were basically asleep -- unwilling or unable to participate in the world economy. Now, they're awake and in a massive rush to catch up.
What makes this age different than the rise of the Western world or the United States is the scale: Three billion people are awakening to capitalism at the very same time. This dwarfs the size and scale of the last two economic shifts.
Investing in the Post-American Economic Age
Any economic activity multiplied by 3 billion is a shift of historic size. And it's the almost unimaginable scale of this third great economic age that brings so much opportunity -- but only for those people who understand that the rise of the rest of the world requires us to invest differently than we have in the past.
First, we need to understand that the rise of the United States and our capitalist system was based on unlimited resources -- food, grain, oil, cement, water, you name it. With 3 billion new people competing for the world's resources, this can no longer be the case.
Second, the rise of American power and economic stability was largely based on the idea of a synchronous world. For example, military superiority was based on superior manpower and weapons. Today, one group of armed rebels taking over an oil line in Nigeria can cause the price of oil to spike drastically, essentially inflicting more economic damage than any military action that's been taken against the United States in modern times.
The world is different now, but you need to remember that this new economic story is also an American one.
For the past 60 years, we were the ones who helped billions of people escape poverty. American business professionals, diplomats and citizens have urged people in distant lands to open their markets, to be unafraid of change, to join the advanced world and, most of all, to learn the secrets of our success.
Furthermore, in the past 10 years, the Internet revolution -- the amazing explosion of information moving around the world at the speed of light -- has accelerated the transfer of knowledge and power, and done so exponentially.
The United States has succeeded in its great historic mission to globalize the world's economies.
Now that the world has entered this third economic age, you as investors need to adapt your strategy. You must lose the old mind set that it's "all America, all the time," and begin to look at your investments through the lens of the Post-American Economic Age.
At Change Wave, we've been global investors for a long time. Most of our investments are in companies with 50% or more of their revenues outside of the United States, and that's the way we're going to continue to invest.
This third great economic age is just beginning, and it's going to be fantastic. It's opening up a whole new world of investment opportunities, the best of which are now in the early, early innings. Welcome aboard.
Toby
P.S. I know the idea of the Post-American Economic Age sounds scary, but it shouldn't be. Investors who understand the world we are now living in will thrive thanks to the new opportunities this great economic shift presents.
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